Article: Complex Systems Won’t Survive the Competence Crisis

It's been awhile since I posted anything political but, a few days ago this article was brought to my attention and I've been digesting it ever since. It clearly articulates much of what I've been thinking in the past few years, reinforced by my long term employment at a Fortune 50 company. The article's arguments and conclusions are spot on, IMNSHO.

At a casual glance, the recent cascades of American disasters might seem unrelated. In a span of fewer than six months in 2017, three U.S. Naval warships experienced three separate collisions resulting in 17 deaths. A year later, powerlines owned by PG&E started a wildfire that killed 85 people. The pipeline carrying almost half of the East Coast’s gasoline shut down due to a ransomware attack. Almost half a million intermodal containers sat on cargo ships unable to dock at Los Angeles ports. A train carrying thousands of tons of hazardous and flammable chemicals derailed near East Palestine, Ohio. Air Traffic Control cleared a FedEx plane to land on a runway occupied by a Southwest plane preparing to take off. Eye drops contaminated with antibiotic-resistant bacteria killed four and blinded fourteen.

While disasters like these are often front-page news, the broader connection between the disasters barely elicits any mention. America must be understood as a system of interwoven systems; the healthcare system sends a bill to a patient using the postal system, and that patient uses the mobile phone system to pay the bill with a credit card issued by the banking system. All these systems must be assumed to work for anyone to make even simple decisions. But the failure of one system has cascading consequences for all of the adjacent systems. As a consequence of escalating rates of failure, America’s complex systems are slowly collapsing.

The core issue is that changing political mores have established the systematic promotion of the unqualified and sidelining of the competent. This has continually weakened our society’s ability to manage modern systems. At its inception, it represented a break from the trend of the 1920s to the 1960s, when the direct meritocratic evaluation of competence became the norm across vast swaths of American society.

...

The path of least resistance will be the devolution of complex systems and the reduction in the quality of life that entails. For the typical resident in a second-tier city in Mexico, Brazil, or South Africa, power outages are not uncommon, tap water is probably not safe to drink, and hospital-associated infections are common and often fatal. Absent a step change in the quality of American governance and a renewed culture of excellence, they prefigure the country’s future.

Emphasis added by me.

The full article is here and worth your time, IMHO: https://www.palladiummag.com/2023/06/01/complex-systems-wont-survive-the-competence-crisis/

DEI is a major force behind this trend but it's not the only thing. For example, I've seen repeatedly where senior level, highly knowledgeable employees are let go as a short term cost-cutting measure. Not only were these senior folks repositories of painfully acquired tribal knowledge, they were mentors to junior engineers. Senior leadership considers it a bonus when they can point to one less old white guy on staff, replaced by one or more diverse candidates.

As the one meme goes, "I know it's bad, but it's going to get a lot worse." The more independent you are, the higher your standard of living will be in the coming years.

The DEF Shortage

On top of the diesel shortage, we have the Diesel exhaust fluid (DEF) shortage. DEF is injected into the exhaust to reduce pollution.

DEF is required in Diesel engines built since 2010. Without some kind of a hack, they won't run. They won't even start.

Without Diesel-powered trucks, nothing in this country moves.

BBC: Why One Man Left Silicon Valley and Setup a Survival Camp

BBC News published this video, which I think is worth watching. It's only a few minutes long. (I couldn't figure out a way to embed it.) H/T to Tamara on Facebook.

The BBC reporter's reaction to the AR15 was a bit stereotypical, but amusing.

As someone who works in information technology and who is seeing the push to automate more and more, I don't think he's completely off-base.

Heck if I know the solution, though.

"Technical Glitches." Uh huh.

Unless you were under a rock, you know about the following three things:

1. The Chinese stock market dive.
2. "Technical glitches" grounding all United Airlines flights in the US yesterday.
3. "Technical glitches" causing all trading to be halted for several hours on the New York Stock Exchange yesterday.

On Tuesday, this was tweeted by Anonymous:

Unless the network and system admins at UAL and the NYSE are totally incompetent, they have major redundancy in place to prevent shutdowns like this from happening. There's simply too much money at stake to have single points of failure.

Now, was Anonymous responsible? Perhaps it was someone looking to divert attention from the Chinese stock market meltdown. Whatever really happened I doubt that the powers that be would share the truth, for fear of upsetting the apple cart.

My tinfoil hat feels a bit warm. It would be a good time to revisit your emergency preparations.

Some Data on the Current State of the Panic

Surplus City Guns in Feasterville, PA is the shop that I've bought most of my guns over the past 10 - 15 years. Yesterday afternoon, they put this on their Facebook timeline:

This is got to be a record for our store for one caliber ( 5.56/.223 )
13,360 rds in bulk in under an hour today
50,000 rds in bulk in under 3 hours Wednesday
21,000 rds in bulk in under 2 1/2hrs Tuesday
and another 2000rds sold by the 20 rd box sprinkled thru-out the week
THAT'S EIGHTY SIX THOUSAND THREE HUNDRED AND SIXTY ROUNDS IN UNDER 7 HOURS .....GEEZ LOUISE GUYS !!!!
The crazy part is we could have easily sold 2 to 3 times that amount if we had it......Thank you for your patronage and we will do our best to keep you supplied at a reasonable price . Keep an eye on Facebook for any upcoming announcements .

Surplus City isn't some huge store. It's your average sized gun shop. Now imagine this going on at every gun shop in the country. This points out a few things, IMO:

1. DHS contracts are not solely to blame for the ammo shortage.
2. This is just 5.56/.223. Other calibers like 9mm, .45 ACP, and .22 LR are flying off the shelves as fast or faster. Ditto for reloading components and magazines.
3. A large part of the American people are arming themselves to the teeth. They are stocking up on guns and ammunition. Kind of like 1775 or 1860.

Anyone with two neurons to rub together knows that the current crop of politicians in Washington -- whether Republican or Democrat -- is incapable of or unwilling to address the problems rending this country in two. In fact, they and their willing accomplices in the mainstream media are doing everything in their power to feed the divisions.

This will not end well.

The Potential for Urban Violence

A post on the Western Rifle Shooters blog by Matt Bracken, author of the Enemies, Foreign and Domestic trilogy, has been generating a lot of interest in the right side of the blogosphere, as well as various Internet gun boards.

Bracken begins:

In response to recent articles in mainstream military journals discussing the use of the U.S. Army to quell insurrections on American soil, I offer an alternate vision of the future. Instead of a small town in the South as the flash point, picture instead a score of U.S. cities in the thrall of riots greater than those experienced in Los Angeles in 1965 (Watts), multiple cities in 1968 (MLK assassination), and Los Angeles again in 1992 (Rodney King). New Yorkers can imagine the 1977 blackout looting or the 1991 Crown Heights disturbance. In fact, the proximate spark of the next round of major riots in America could be any from a long list cribbed from our history.

Read the rest here.

Some of the responses I’ve read to dismiss his concerns as a SHTF masturbatory fantasy, while others take him very seriously. Personally, while I don’t think it would play out as described, his concerns are very valid.

It was recently announced that the Federal government debt stands at $16 trillion dollars. The only way this is being sustained is by the Fed printing money. Further, we now have about half of all Americans who don’t pay income taxes, i.e., aren’t contributing but rather taking from the productive class. Eventually, this has to end.

Despite the bread (EBT cards) and circuses (TV, movies, and sports), a large part of the American population is aware that something is wrong.

For about a year and a half I was on the board of a gun club in rural Chester County, PA (not to be confused with Chester, PA). We noticed a huge uptick in memberships starting shortly before the 2008 election. After Obama won, the surge increased. We went from maybe 10 new members per month up to as many as 50 or 60 per month. It got to the point where our membership director was overwhelmed, so we instituted a monthly new member cap of 30.

Even that wasn't enough to deal with the influx of new members. Earlier this year we instituted a sponsorship requirement. Finally, we accepted our last new members for the year in August. We are not planning to accept any new members until January.

Over this time, membership went from about 800 up to ~1300. Note that a membership may be a family, so this represents more than 1400 people.

Along with the near doubling of our membership we noticed a difference in the types of guns we'd see on the ranges. Over the past few years it's gone from predominantly sporting rifles to mostly AR-15s and AKs. The pistol range is generally packed on weekends.

Some of this is due to the economy. Some of it's due to the Obama administration's policies and lack of leadership. People are gearing up. There is great unease and I fear that the right spark could light off a powderkeg.

If there is unrest you’ll need to be prepared for it ahead of time. The best way to deal with a fight, whether it involves two people or a mob, is to avoid it in the first place. That’s not always possible.

Pay attention to the news and social media as ways to pick up on potentially dangerous situations, and avoid them if at all possible.

Many of the same things you’ll need to survive a natural disaster would be needed to survive a period of unrest when it’s unsafe to leave your home: food, water, batteries for flashlights and lanterns, etc.

To deal with unrest, I’d add fire extinguishers, first aid kits, and for home defense a good shotgun or rifle and plenty of ammunition. For those times when you must venture out, you’ll want a concealable handgun, a good belt and holster, a bright flashlight, and portable med kit.

Communications will be vital, e.g.,

• Landline, cell phone, and Internet all have their place.
• FRS/GMRS/MURS radios for a neighborhood watch will be valuable. Ham is even better.

Along with tools, you need mindset, organization, and plans. Work out ahead of time with your family members what they should do and where they should go in the event of unrest. If your neighbors seem amenable, you may also wish to discuss things with them. You should also get training on practical marksmanship, the law regarding the use of deadly force, and first aid.

Unfortunately, I don’t think either political party is willing to tackle our country’s problems in a way which will avert eventual unrest. I do think that if Obama is reelected, the timeline will be accelerated due to his demonstrated hostility to capitalism and the productive class. 

Prepping for Civil Unrest

Prepping for civil unrest is beginning to take on a new urgency, in my opinion. Over on Blog O'Stuff, I've posted here and here some pictures of the Occupy Oakland and Occupy Philadelphia crowds, respectively. When you have persons like the Mayor of Oakland and the President of the United States openly voicing support for communist revolutionaries within our borders, it isn't a big stretch to see this spreading and becoming more violent.

IMO, ff you live in an urban area you should be prepared with sufficient food and water to last out a week's worth of rioting at a minimum, along with fire extinguishers, first aid supplies, and the means to defend yourself and your home.

Don't get caught with your pants down.

You know preparedness is going mainstream

... when you see this on the comics page:




The comment about defensive weaponry should be taken to heart, as well as the unspoken lesson about OPSEC.

(Click the comic to view full width.)

Book Review: The Modern Survival Manual: Surviving the Economic Collapse

I've been meaning to do a review of The Modern Survival Manual: Surviving the Economic Collapse, by Fernando "FerFAL" Aguirre for quite awhile now.  Well, here it is.

Most of the survival guides which I've seen, such as Tappan On Survival or the works of John Wesley, Rawles (he spells his name with the comma) recommend heading for the hills in the event of a socio-economic collapse, or better yet moving out to an isolated rural location before the SHTF.  This recommendation is based on the theory that if the economy collapses, the have-nots will soon turn their attention to the haves and loot them for food, luxuries, and the womenfolk.  Thus, it's best to maximize the distance between yourself and the urban looters who will come for your stuff once their foodstuffs and supplies are exhuasted.

FerFAL takes a different approach, one worth listening to, because unlike Tappan or Rawles, he has actually lived through an economic collapse.  In his case, it was the 2001 collapse in Argentina, and its aftermath.  Rather than telling you to move to a rural retreat, FerFAL recommends you stay in "civilization" and enhance your skills to cope with how society evolves after a collapse.

One very important point the author makes regarding isolated rural retreats is that if you are attacked, help is a long time coming, and likely won't arrive until well after the criminals are long gone.  Examples of this are white farmers in rural Argentina, South Africa and Zimbabwe, who have suffered horrific home invasions in recent years.  If you're located in an urban area or a suburb, there is a much better chance of help arriving in time.  As with many things, choosing where to live is a balancing act and you need to weigh this factor, along with many other.

Although Argentina's economy collapsed in 2001, by and large the country did not devolve into some Mad Max-esque post-apocalyptic wasteland.  Although crime skyrocketed, people figured out ways to cope.  For example, private security became a booming  field.

While it may not be The Wasteland, property crimes and robberies have become much more common in Argentina.  FerFAL spends a lot of time discussing how to deal with this, from situtational awareness to carrying a pistol for self defense.  American survivalists often fixate on the best rifle for a SHTF scenario. In reality, the most important gun to have in the one you can take with you.  IOW, a pistol.  FerFAL favors a Glock and also likes the Argentine FM Hi Power (a Browning Hi Power produced under license from FN).  In general, he likes high capacity modern pistols since there are numerous cases where a good guy is confronted with several assailants.  Here in the US most defensive gun uses don't even require shots fired since criminals are generally loather to confront someone resisting with deadly force.  In the aftermath of an economic collapse, criminals may be more desperate, and thus more willing to take risks.  This is something to take into account if things ever get to that point in the US.

That said, after you get a suitable pistol and holster, you should still have a suitable home defense rifle or shotgun.

Aside from the dramatic increase in crime, one thing FerFAL emphasizes is that in the aftermath of an economic collapse, one of the keys to survival is adaptability.  In other words, you may need to change how you make your living, and may need to do a variety of things rather than holding down just one job.

FerFAL also discusses the use of precious metals (PMs) as barter material/alternate currency after a monetary collapse.  Reading his take on this (both in the book and on his blog) caused me to reevalute my own position on PMs, which I'd previously dismissed.

FerFAL's book is not without its faults.  The book is self-published.  English is not his first language and it would benefit from the attention of an editor.  There's also some coarse language which some people may find offputting.  That said, this book is unique (or nearly so) in that it is based on the real life experience of living through an economic collapse.  As such, it deserves a spot on the shelf of anyone concerned about the direction in which the US is heading.

Important Info About Credit Cards

One of the most important things about emergency preparedness is getting you financial house in order.  For the past several decades, credit cards have been a critical part of most Americans' finances.  How they will be issued and the fees associated with them will be changing.

This article from Yahoo Finance gives you a summary of how things will be changing.  If you don't use credit cards, great.  If you're like most Americans and you do use them, read the article to get an overview of what to expect.

Thoughts on the Dollar Carry Trade

Over at Blog O'Stuff.

Incoming Train Wreck and Gold Prices

Found on PrudentBear, via Clayton Cramer:

The rise in the gold price above $1,100 per ounce last week is a pretty good indicator that something has changed. For 18 months, the gold price had been in a trading range topping out around $1,000. It has now broken out decisively from that range. The opportunity for the world's central banks to change policy and affect the economic outcome has been lost. The world economy is now locked on to an undeviating track towards another train wreck.

At most times, the gold price is not an economically significant indicator. In 1980-2000, it declined irregularly from $850 to around $280, and movements in it seemed to have had little or no effect on the global economy. That's what you'd expect; even at $1,000 per ounce, the global production of gold is only around $100 billion annually, which would put the entire world's gold extraction industry only 17th on the Fortune 500. When Gordon Brown sold Britain's entire gold reserves in 1999, at a price below $300 per ounce, it seemed a defensible decision. I went to a meeting in 2001 hosted by a diverse group which believed that the U.S. Treasury was conspiring to suppress the gold price, and my main thought was: why would Treasury bother?

However, in relatively few periods, gold becomes of immense importance. When investors lose trust in conventional currencies, because monetary policy appears set to debauch them, gold is the immediately available safe haven. During such periods, gold's former importance as a store of value becomes uppermost in the public mind, and its price becomes a major economic indicator.

The entire article is worth reading.  In a related vein:

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Gold prices surged to record highs yet again Monday, topping $1,139 an ounce, as investors continue to favor the precious metal over currencies like the U.S. dollar.

Gold for December delivery jumped $22.50, or 2%, to settle at a record $1,139.20 a troy ounce Monday. That easily trounces the closing price for Friday, when gold settled at its previous record of $1,116.70 an ounce.

After the close, the price continued to move even higher in electronic trading.

Link.

I don't consider myself a "gold bug."  However, a couple things caused me to revise my thinking about gold and other precious metals:

1. Comments by Fernando "FerFAL" Aguirre, author of the Surviving in Argentina blog.  He does have real-life experience with this, after all.
   
2. Second-hand comments by someone high up the food chain at a major Wall Street investment firm, relayed to me through my accountant back in the Spring.

In my opinion PMs are worth serious consideration as a prep, not necessarily as an "investment" in the sense that they'll increase in value, but rather as a hedge against inflation and/or the drop of the dollar's value against other currencies, which will cause the cost of imported goods to rise.

Edit 11/18/09 at 12:38: I should clarify number 2, above.  The discussion was not about investment advice.  Rather it was about the state of the economy then and where we thought it was heading.

Money in War-Ravaged Iraq

I found this article from Mises.org interesting, in light of the possibble collapse of the US dollar due to government mismanagement of the economy:

There has been much ado concerning the Federal Reserve's doubling of the monetary base this past year. Many believe a currency crisis or hyperinflation of the dollar is imminent. Some go as far as to say that this crisis will destroy America.

...

In the villages, houses and boats needed to be repaired or rebuilt, roads needed attention, and parents wanted to get their children back in school. In order to do all these wonderful things, a medium of exchange was needed. Unfortunately, or fortunately, depending onhow you look at it, the villagers did not put much faith in the paper money printed by the government in Baghdad.
As this was an agrarian society the villagers turned to a time-tested medium of exchange: livestock. In the villages all households had some sheep, and the more affluent houses had very large herds. Goods were exchanged, debts repaid, and business contracts agreed upon all using sheep as money.

...

The river water, while great for crops and livestock, was not ideal for human consumption, and therefore clean drinking water became a very valuable commodity. The bottled water brought in from the larger cities was one of the most sought-after commodities in the village, and I soon noticed villagers pricing items in not only sheep, but bottles of drinking water as well.

Then there was the standard wartime medium of exchange: cigarettes. The villagers smoked cigarettes every evening with chai tea. They were bought in the cities and brought back by the truck load. As a result they were not as valuable as sheep or bottled water; however they served as small change for the villagers.

Full article.